This week, the spot price of domestic natural rubber standard rubber showed a fluctuating rise. The average price of the natural rubber market remained at around 9,380 yuan/ton on Monday, and was raised to 9,600 yuan/ton on the weekend, with an overall increase of 2.34%. This week, natural rubber merchants have been relatively active in their shipments. The overall market atmosphere of natural rubber is relatively good, and the transaction situation is relatively ideal. The transaction atmosphere has an upward trend compared with last week.
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Analysis of the reasons for the rise in domestic natural rubber prices
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The reasons for the rise in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:
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1. Macroscopically, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that the existing quantitative easing (QE) program will be extended for seven months until March 2017, and the monthly asset purchases will remain unchanged at 60 billion euros. The easing degree of the new policy was obviously less than expected, the euro rose in a straight line, and the exchange rate against the US dollar hit a new high since early November; domestically, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose slightly to a four-month high in October, driven by new export orders. The index returned to above 50, and the new orders index and output index both hit four-month highs, indicating that the slowdown in the manufacturing industry has slowed down as the growth stabilization policy has taken effect. At present, the price of natural rubber is supported by rising factors, and the fundamentals of natural rubber have risen slightly.
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2. In terms of market, the state-owned whole milk of Yunnan in Shanghai area was about 9,400 yuan/ton in 2013, up 100 yuan/ton; Hainan state-owned whole milk was about 9,400 yuan/ton in 2013, up 100 yuan/ton; Milk is about 9,400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the private latex price in Yunnan in 2014 is about 9,400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton.
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3. In terms of inventory, as of the week of December 4, the natural rubber futures warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 450 tons compared with last week. Natural rubber futures warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were reported at 121,540 tons. Among them, Shanghai decreased by 30, Shandong decreased by 20, Yunnan increased by 100, Hainan decreased by 350, and Tianjin decreased by 150.
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Fourth, in terms of demand, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tires this week was 62.88%, down 0.80% from last week; the operating rate of domestic tire companies' semi-steel tires was 67.54%, down 0.31% from last week. The market demand for all-steel tires is insufficient, and the start of construction has remained basically stable. Recently, orders for semi-steel tires have increased, and some manufacturers have increased their start-up. However, from a year-on-year perspective, the current operating rate is still lower than the same period last year. According to the practice of previous years, after entering December, the operating rate of tire enterprises will decrease rapidly, reaching the lowest level in the Lunar New Year.
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市場前景預測: 本網站對初步預測進行分析，維持對滬指市場之間波動的判斷。總體來看，美聯儲12月加息預期重新增強，加大了市場風險。盡管11月國內產區已逐漸進入減產期，但東南亞產膠國仍處于高產季節，因此國內減產導致的減產難以使全球總量發生明顯變化。然而，青島自貿區的庫存仍在上升。隨著后期到港量的增加，港口庫存趨于上升。同時，交易所庫存有增無減，供應壓力仍然較大。此外，終端重卡銷售低迷的局面仍未改變，輪胎行業面臨內需不足、外需受阻的局面。在供需基本面利空的環境下，滬交市場的壓力還是比較大的。綜合來看，滬指短期或維持震蕩盤整格局。